Black-Eyed Susan Day at Laurel Park is the eve of the Preakness — a card built around filly and mare racing at every distance and surface, culminating in the George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Grade II, the most important race for three-year-old fillies on the Eastern seaboard. The Late Pick 5 threads through five consecutive stakes races, covering a turf mile for 3-year-old fillies, two dirt routes for fillies and mares, a turf sprint for fillies and mares, a $250,000 dirt route for 3&up males, and finally the $300,000 Black-Eyed Susan G2.
The overriding analytical theme is the Brittany Russell stable. Racing's hottest barn (32% wins, 226 starts) enters horses in Races 9, 11, and 13 — Coach Mazzula in the Hilltop, Lost and Found in The Very One, and the question in the Black-Eyed Susan of whether My Miss Mo can step up against better. The barn's horses carry Sheldon Russell or Jevian Toledo and have been bulletworking since their last races. Where the Russell barn fires three times in a sequence, covering at least two of their horses is analytically sound.
The dirt legs tell a cleaner story. Margie's Intention (1/1) in the Allaire DuPont is the most obvious single on the card — Brad Cox's filly owns the best dirt speed figure and most class. In the Pimlico Special G3, Navajo Warrior enters with a 107 speed figure from a sub-class win and carries the day's highest last-race figure in any route race. The Black-Eyed Susan belongs to Braken Poppa or My Miss Mo — one of these two E-type pace-pressers will outrun the chalk-heavy field.
Late Pick 5 Selections at a Glance
| Race | Horse | ML | Style | Trainer / Jockey | Confidence | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Coach Mazzula ⭐ #3 · Hilltop L125K · 1 Mile Turf · 3yo Fillies |
6/1 | E-8 | Russell B (32%) / Toledo J · Prime Power 133.7 | ★★★★ | PICK |
| 9 Val | Ultimate Love #2 · Best Prime Power (145.8) · Best turf speed in field |
4/5 | P-2 | Trombetta (18%) / Velazquez JR · Prime Power 145.8 | ★★★★ | VALUE |
| 9 Alt | Brat Pack #5 · Hot jockey Ruiz · Sharp 5F workout · Graham barn |
8/1 | P-3 | Graham HG (24%) / Ruiz J · Prime Power 128.3 | ★★★ | LONGSHOT |
| 10 | Margie's Intention ⭐ #2 · DuPont Distaff L125K · 1⅛ Miles Dirt · F&M |
1/1 | E/P-5 | Cox B (35% T/J combo) / Ortiz Jr · Prime Power 136.1 | ★★★★★ | STAR PLAY |
| 10 Val | Complexity Jane #4 · 5W at LRL · Hot T/J combo · Ran 2nd last out |
5/1 | E/P-5 | Russell B (32% / 41% T/J L60) / Russell S · PP 135.3 | ★★★ | VALUE |
| 10 Alt | Waveless #7 · Best last-race speed (96) · Won last · Pletcher/OrtizJL |
6/1 | E-8 | Pletcher / Ortiz JL · Prime Power 135.6 | ★★★ | LONGSHOT |
| 11 | Saturday Flirt ⭐ #5 · The Very One B100K · 5½f Turf · F&M |
6/5 | S-0 | Ward W (50% this meet) / Ortiz Jr · Prime Power 153.3 | ★★★★ | PICK |
| 11 Val | Lost and Found #3 · Hot T/J combo · Won last (TP) · Russell barn |
3/1 | E/P-3 | Russell B (32% / 41% T/J) / Russell S · PP 150.9 | ★★★★ | VALUE |
| 11 Alt | Sunna #8 · Won last (GP 4/12) · 91/89 speed figures · E/P style |
6/1 | E/P-5 | Sweezey / Saez L · Prime Power 138.4 | ★★★ | LONGSHOT |
| 12 | Navajo Warrior ⭐ #2 · Pimlico Special G3 · 1⅜ Miles Dirt · 3&up |
5/2 | E/P-6 | Joseph Jr S (50% this meet) / Prat F · Prime Power 141.2 | ★★★★ | PICK |
| 12 Val | Yo Daddy #7 · Best prime power (141.9) · Won Excelsior L (4/4) |
3/1 | P-4 | Rice L / Lezcano J · Prime Power 141.9 | ★★★ | VALUE |
| 12 Alt | San Siro #3 · 3rd Ben Ali G3 last out · Finishes 3rd / won OP allow. |
6/1 | P-2 | Walsh B (50%) / Gaffalione · Prime Power 135.3 | ★★★ | LONGSHOT |
| 13 | Braken Poppa ⭐ #5 · Black-Eyed Susan G2 · 1⅛ Miles Dirt · 3yo Fillies |
7/2 | E-8 | Asmussen (29% T/J L60) / Ortiz JL · Prime Power 133.3 | ★★★★ | PICK |
| 13 Val | My Miss Mo #10 · Best last-race speed (92) · 2nd in GP Oaks G2 last |
7/2 | E/P-6 | Joseph Jr S / Gaffalione · Prime Power 133.6 | ★★★★ | VALUE |
| 13 Alt | Jumping the Gun #7 · Best prime power (134.0) · 2nd off layoff bounce |
3/1 | E/P-5 | Simoff / Saez L · Prime Power 134.0 | ★★★ | LONGSHOT |
9
Hilltop Stakes — $125,000 · 1 Mile (Turf)
Pick 5 Leg 1 · 3-Year-Old Fillies Only · No Lasix · Post ~3:54 PM · 7 Starters
E1 Par 86
E2 Par 87
Late Speed Par 84
Speed Par 87
The Pick 5 opens with a turf mile stakes for 3-year-old fillies — and it's an unusual field with a strong favorite (Ultimate Love, 4/5) who has not raced in 196 days. The key bias data is decisive: P and S running styles have dominated turf 8.0f races this week (2.00 and 2.34 impact values respectively), and posts 1–3 are showing a 3.00 impact value. This creates a structural argument for closer-style horses from inside posts, and the most dangerous horse in that profile is the Brittany Russell homebred #3 Coach Mazzula.
Ultimate Love's 196-day layoff is the defining narrative risk. She is 4-for-3 on turf and won the Selima B125k here last fall in a dominant 86 speed figure. But she failed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf G1 — bumped start, shifted, no late kick — and has not been to the track since October 31. The 90+ days away angle carries only 14% wins (186 sts, -0.36 ROI) for trainer Trombetta in this configuration. She is the best horse in the field but carries considerable uncertainty.
★ Top Pick — Race 9 · Hilltop Stakes
#3 Coach Mazzula
6/1 ML · Authentic × Crown and Sugar · Russell B (32%) / Toledo J · Won LRL Apr 18 · Home track advantage
- Won last race (LRL 4/18, Alw53020n1x, 8.5f turf) — stalked 2-wide, led at 1/4, driving; 84 speed figure
- HOME TRACK: 4 starts at Laurel, 2W-1P-1Show, best speed 84 — proven course/distance specialist
- Russell barn running at 32% wins (226 sts) — one of the best active win rates at this level
- 2nd off layoff angle: 23% wins (222 sts) — eligible to improve further off the April win
- E-style running suits current week's early-speed favorable posts (posts 1–3 at 3.00 IV this week)
- Won last race angle: 23% wins (446 sts) — barn's winners come back to win again at a high rate
- Bullet workout May 12 at LRL (1st of 108) — sharpest workout in the field
- Authentic sire: 6%1stT SPI — not a first-time turf specialist, but multiple turf starts already
- Moves up in class, but the Russell barn historically handles class rises well at this track
Value — Race 9
#2 Ultimate Love
4/5 ML · Curlin × Tsunami of Love · Trombetta (18%) / Velazquez JR · 196 days since last start
- Prime Power 145.8 — highest in field by a significant margin; best turf speed in field (89)
- Won Selima B125k here (LRL 9/27/25) — 3-4 wide, emphatic, ridden out; 86 speed fig at distance
- Won OC62.5k at LRL (9/5/25) — led between foes, driving; 83 speed fig on this turf
- Trainer 22% wins when beaten favorite — she failed in the BC, likely returns fit and sharp
- Velazquez is an elite jockey who knows this filly (rode her Sep 27 victory)
- Risk: 196-day absence; 90+ days away angle only 14% wins; P-style runs counter to week bias
- Must include at standard and full coverage — her talent is undeniable
Longshot — Race 9
#5 Brat Pack
8/1 ML · Gun Runner × Ultra Brat · Graham HG (24%) / Ruiz J (hot, 13-4-3-1 L7 days) · Sharp 5F workout May 9
- Graham barn (24% wins) — same operation that dominated the Preakness Day turf card
- Hot jockey Jorge Ruiz: 13-4-3-1 in last 7 days — the hottest rider on the turf card
- 3rd last out in Sweet Charlotte L175k (GP, 1/31) at 13.50 odds — competitive effort vs. stakes
- Won maiden (GP, 12/24) — 2-3 wide, led 1/8, held; 84 speed figure
- 46-90 days away angle: 21% wins (270 sts, +0.05 ROI) — acceptable
- Sharp 5F workout May 09 at Fairplex (1st of 13) — freshening confirmed
- Risk: 8th in Hecimbaric G3 two starts ago — needs to step up from allowance to listed stakes
| Horse | ML | Prime Power | Last Race Spd | Back Spd | Days Off | Key Angle / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 Coach Mazzula | 6/1 | 133.7 | 84 | 84 | 27 | Home track winner; Russell barn; bullet workout |
| #2 Ultimate Love | 4/5 | 145.8 | 89 | 89 | 196 | Best PP; best turf speed; long layoff risk |
| #5 Brat Pack | 8/1 | 128.3 | 79 | 84 | 76 | Graham/Ruiz hot combo; sharp workout; class jump |
| #4 Siouxse | 12/1 | 126.0 | 85 | 85 | 181 | Won Nov maiden (Aqu); 181 days absence — risky |
| #1 Use Me | 7/2 | 133.9 | 78 (79) | 79 | 33 | Won KEE maiden 4/12; moves up; slow figures |
| #6 Unmiztaken | 10/1 | 133.6 | 79 | 79 | 27 | Poor 2nd route race trainer record (0% wins 16 sts) |
| #7 I Love Giraffes | 12/1 | 122.6 | 76 | NA | 54 | Never raced at route distance; class jump too steep |
Race 9 Wagering Strategy
Win#3 Coach Mazzula · #2 Ultimate Love
Exacta3 → 2, 5, 1 · 2 → 3, 5, 1 · Box: 3, 2
Trifecta3, 2 / 3, 2, 5, 1 / 3, 2, 5, 1, 4
Pick 5 SinglesBudget: #3 · Standard: #3, #2 · Full Coverage: #3, #2, #5
10
Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes — $125,000 · 1⅛ Miles (Dirt)
Pick 5 Leg 2 · Fillies & Mares 3&up · No Lasix · Post ~4:28 PM · 8 Starters · Leg A Two-Day All Dirt Pick 5
E1 Par 89
E2 Par 94
Late Speed Par 88
Speed Par 94
This is the easiest leg in the sequence. Margie's Intention (1/1) is an obvious single — the Brad Cox-trained 4-year-old filly ran 2nd in the Beldame G2 at Belmont (9/26/25, 99 speed figure), 3rd in the Alabama G1, and 2nd in the Louisiana Lassie B100k most recently. Her career best is 99, her best at 9 furlongs is also 99, and she owns the fastest dirt speed figure in this field by a wide margin. The race type stats show 36% favorite wins and 68% ITM in comparable Laurel stakes — structure favors betting the chalk here.
★ Why Margie's Intention Wins
#2 Margie's Intention
1/1 ML · Won Black-Eyed Susan G2 here in 2025 · Best dirt speed (99) · Trainer/jockey combo 35% wins in last 60 days
- Best dirt speed in field at 99 — second place is Ourdaydreaminggirl at 98; margin is decisive
- Won 2025 Black-Eyed Susan G2 at Pimlico under Flavien Prat — proven class at this level on this circuit
- Ran 2nd in Beldame G2 (Belmont, 9/26/25) at 99 speed fig — out-classed a G2 field at Belmont
- Ran 2nd most recently in Louisiana Lassie B100k (FG, 3/22) — shadowed inside, 5-wide, gamely
- Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr combo: 35% wins in last 60 days (49 sts, -0.03 ROI) — elite partnership
- 34% trainer: beaten favorite angle — bounces back from losses at a high rate
- Sharp 5F workout May 08 at Churchill Downs (4th of 13) — confirmed sharpness after 54-day break
- Race type stats: G3/Stakes 100k–153k at LRL 36% fav. wins, 68% ITM — structural support for chalk
- E/P style — suits dirt route bias (63% speed bias, 1.35 E/P impact value this meet)
Secondary — Race 10
#4 Complexity Jane
5/1 ML · Complexity × Bestinthebusiness · Russell B (32%) / Russell S · 5 wins from 9 starts, 5W-1P at LRL
- 5 wins in 7 Laurel starts — the ultimate home track specialist in the field
- Ran 2nd last out (LRL 4/4, Heavenly Cause B100k) — led rail, weakened at 1/16; failed as fav.
- Hot trainer/jockey combo: Russell/Russell 41% wins in last 60 days (37 sts, +0.09 ROI)
- Best performance at distance: 90 speed figure (Thirty-Eight Go B, LRL 11/9/25) — class-competitive
- Failed as favorite in last 2 starts — may have peaked in current form cycle
Longshot / Include — Race 10
#7 Waveless
6/1 ML · Gun Runner × Malibu Drive · Pletcher / Ortiz JL · Won last (AQU 4/19) · Highest last-race speed (96)
- Won OC50k/n1x at Aqueduct (4/19) — 4-3 wide first turn, edged clear; 96 speed figure
- Best last-race speed figure in field (96) — legitimate figure from a competitive effort
- Best dirt speed in field faster than avg winning speed per BrisNet
- Pletcher / Ortiz JL: 22% wins (453 sts), 26% wins with E types — hot combination
- Risk: Only 5 career starts; moves up from OC50k to listed $125k stakes; no stakes record
| Horse | ML | Prime Power | Best Dirt Spd | Last Race Fig | Days Off | Key Angle / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 Margie's Intention | 1/1 | 136.1 | 99 | 90 | 54 | Best figure; Cox/Ortiz Jr hot; won this race last yr |
| #4 Complexity Jane | 5/1 | 135.3 | 90 | 89 | 41 | 5W at LRL; Russell barn; failed as fav. 2 straight |
| #7 Waveless | 6/1 | 135.6 | 96 | 96 | 26 | Best last-race fig; Pletcher/OrtizJL; class jump |
| #6 Queen Azteca | 5/1 | 135.0 | 93 | 93 | 28 | Won KEE OC100k 4/17; Prat up; strong form |
| #8 Ourdaydreaminggirl | 6/1 | 131.1 | 98 | 89 | 28 | Career best 98 speed; drops in class; poor G3 trainer |
| #1 Low Country Magic | 12/1 | 127.9 | 92 | 83 | 47 | Sharp workout; 47-day layoff; below class |
| #3 Late Nite Call | 30/1 | 125.6 | 89 | 66 | 41 | Blinkers off; 0% NonGraded Stk trainer record; fade |
| #5 Too Many Kisses | 30/1 | 122.7 | 91 | 82 | 21 | Won OC40k last out; massive class jump to $125k stk |
Race 10 Wagering Strategy
Win#2 Margie's Intention — confident single
Exacta2 → 4, 7, 6 · Box: 2, 4
Pick 5 SinglesBudget: #2 · Standard: #2 · Full Coverage: #2, #4
NoteSingle #2 Margie's Intention at all ticket levels — this is the clearest single on the card
11
The Very One Stakes — $100,000 · 5½ Furlongs (Turf)
Pick 5 Leg 3 · Fillies & Mares 3&up · No Lasix · Rail at 52 feet · Post ~5:02 PM · 9 Starters · Leg A Two-Day All Stakes Pick 5
E1 Par 94
E2 Par 98
Late Speed Par 87
Speed Par 88
The Very One Stakes is the pick 5's most intriguing leg — a 5½-furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares dominated by a morning-line favorite (Saturday Flirt, 6/5) who has not raced in 33 days after a disappointing Giant's Causeway G2 appearance at Keenefield. The week's turf 5.5f bias strongly favors E/P types (2.23 IV this week), and the rail/inner posts are advantaged (posts 1–3, 1.70 IV). Saturday Flirt's best 99 speed figure from her September stakes win is the fastest in this field by a wide margin, and Wesley Ward (50% wins this meet) is a world-class turf sprint trainer.
★ Top Pick — Race 11 · The Very One Stakes
#5 Saturday Flirt
6/5 ML · Mendelssohn × Dragic · Ward W (50%) / Ortiz Jr · Best turf speed (99) · Drops in class · 2nd off layoff bounce
- Best turf speed in field (99) — career high from A220000nc at Churchill (9/6/25, 11-horse field)
- Also won Saratoga Sprint L175k (6/8/25) — chased 3-2 wide, edged clear; 85 speed figure
- Won KEE Alw120000n1x (4/16/25) — 2-wide between, 4-wide at 1/4, rallied; proven in spots
- Trainer Wesley Ward: 50% wins this meet (2 sts, 1-0-1) — very small but elite sample
- Drops in class from G2 to $100k non-graded — significant class relief
- 2nd off layoff angle: 28% wins (129 sts, -0.24 ROI) — expects to improve off the KEE bounce
- Irad Ortiz Jr. — elite jockey, top choice in the field
- Last race (KEE Giant's Causeway G2, 4/12): 2-wide between, 5-wide upper, no factor — excused effort
- NonGraded Stk trainer angle: 27% wins (124 sts) — positive structural support
Value — Race 11
#3 Lost and Found
3/1 ML · Liam's Map × Taparri · Russell B (32%) / Russell S · Won TP Mar 26 · Hot T/J combo in last 14 days
- Won last race (TP 3/26, OC40k/n2x, 6f AW) — step slow at start, sent, held sway; 91 speed figure
- Russell barn (32% wins, 226 sts) — same operation firing in R9 and R13 today
- Hot T/J combo: 6-2-1-1 last 14 days — barn is peaking at the right time
- 1st start with trainer angle: 31% wins (124 sts) — switches from Walden to Russell and wins at a high rate
- Liam's Map sire: 14% turf, strong stamina and versatility profile
- 50 days since last race; 1st at route was a 3rd in a 5.5f turf sprint at LRL (10/6/25 Kee) — distance experience
- Risk: All recent wins on AW, first race on turf was 2nd at 5f turf; new surface question
Longshot — Race 11
#8 Sunna
6/1 ML · Dominus × Warm · Sweezey / Saez L · Won OC25k (GP 4/12) · Best early pace figure in field
- Won last race (GP 4/12, OC25k/n1x, 5f turf) — inside, 2-wide upper, ridden out; 91 speed figure
- Best early pace figure in field from last race: 94/89 (E1/E2) — commands the pace
- E/P style — perfectly suits week's 2.23 impact value at 5.5f turf
- 18% trainer: winner last race angle (133 sts) — Sweezey wins with horses coming off wins
- Luis Saez — elite jockey, improves any mount
- Risk: Moves up from OC25k to $100k listed stakes; poor NonGraded Stk trainer record (4%, 24 sts)
| Horse | ML | Prime Power | Best Turf Spd | Last Race Fig | Days Off | Key Angle / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 Saturday Flirt | 6/5 | 153.3 | 99 | 86 | 33 | Best turf speed; Ward hot; class drop; 2nd off layoff |
| #3 Lost and Found | 3/1 | 150.9 | N/A (AW) | 91 | 50 | Russell barn; hot T/J combo; first turf start risk |
| #8 Sunna | 6/1 | 138.4 | 91 | 91 | 33 | Won last; best early pace; E/P suits bias; class jump |
| #2 Sporting Lady | 6/1 | 141.7 | 93 | 85 | 26 | Ran 2nd OC75k; beaten as fav last two; Brion trainer weak |
| #9 Les Reys | 8/1 | 138.4 | 94 | 82 | 188 | Best career turf speed; 188-day absence — disqualifying |
| #6 Somnium | 15/1 | 132.9 | 88 | 79 | 13 | Won Pen allowance 5/2; 25% trainer NonGraded Stk; class jump |
| #1 Strutsherstuff | 20/1 | 126.3 | 86 | 86 | 322 | 322-day absence — essentially a first-time returner |
| #4 Julee's Legacy | 30/1 | 128.2 | 73 (dirt) | 84 | 14 | Won CT sprint; dirt to turf (7% trainer), wrong surface |
| #7 Malibu Hooch | 30/1 | 127.7 | N/A | N/A | 398 | 398-day layoff; first time on grass; 3% trainer 1st grass |
Race 11 Wagering Strategy
Win#5 Saturday Flirt · #3 Lost and Found
Exacta5 → 3, 8, 2 · 3 → 5, 8, 2 · Box: 5, 3
Trifecta5, 3 / 5, 3, 8, 2 / 5, 3, 8, 2, 9
Pick 5 SinglesBudget: #5 · Standard: #5, #3 · Full Coverage: #5, #3, #8
12
Pimlico Special Stakes — Grade III · $250,000 · 1⅜ Miles (Dirt)
Pick 5 Leg 4 · 3-Year-Olds & Upward · No Lasix · Post ~5:37 PM · 7 Starters · Leg B Two-Day All Dirt Pick 5
E1 Par 92
E2 Par 99
Late Speed Par 90
Speed Par 99
The Pimlico Special G3 is a compact but quality field of seven going 1⅜ miles — the same distance as tomorrow's Preakness. Navajo Warrior (5/2) enters with the highest last-race speed figure (107) of any horse in the sequence — a dominant wire-to-wire win in the OC125k/n2x at Gulfstream on March 21, where he ran 107 from 4-horses-wide at 1/4 on a 4-horse field. That figure exceeds par (99) by 8 points and makes him the best figure horse by a substantial margin. Saffie Joseph Jr. is running at 50% wins this meet (1-1-0 in 1 start). Flavien Prat takes over from Gonzalez. E/P style fits the dirt route bias perfectly.
★ Top Pick — Race 12 · Pimlico Special G3
#2 Navajo Warrior
5/2 ML · Candy Ride × Crosswinds · Joseph Jr S (50% this meet) / Prat F · 107 speed figure · Best dirt speed in field · 55 days since last race
- 107 speed figure last race (GP 3/21, OC125k/n2x) — highest last-race figure in today's field by 6 points
- Best dirt speed in field at 107 — exceeds the 99 par by 8 points; structural advantage
- Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.: 50% wins this meet (1 sts, 1-0-0) and 6-50-83% T/J combo with Prat
- Jockey Prat: 27% wins (405 sts), 28% with E/P types — elite combination
- 46-90 days away angle: 23% wins (961 sts) — within normal range for this operation
- E/P style: exactly suits the dirt route bias (E/P 1.22 impact value meet-wide, 2.18 this week)
- Won at 6 different tracks in career — proven versatility and adaptability as a shipper
- 8W from 16 starts (50% win rate) — one of the most prolific winners on this card
- Candy Ride sire: 20% mud rate — handles off tracks if needed tomorrow
Value — Race 12
#7 Yo Daddy
3/1 ML · Yoshida × Elle Stormin' · Rice L / Lezcano J · Won Excelsior L150k (AQU 4/4) · Best prime power (141.9)
- Won Excelsior L150k (Aqu, 4/4) — chased 3-4 wide, edged clear; 101 speed figure
- Prime Power 141.9 — highest in field; career best 103 (OC80k, GP 2/6/25)
- Runner-up in Stymie L150k (Aqu, 2/28) — 6-wide upper, repelled by favorite; 92 speed fig
- Won OC75k/n2x at Aqueduct (2/4) — 4-wide upper, edged away; 99 speed figure
- P-style (closer) — slightly counters bias this week (P 1.22 IV) but horses with 100+ speed can win any way
- Poor Graded Stakes trainer record (4% wins, 61 sts) — key concern at this class level
Longshot — Race 12
#3 San Siro
6/1 ML · Classic Empire × Catenaria · Walsh B (50%) / Gaffalione · 3rd Ben Ali G3 · Won OP OC100k
- 3rd in Ben Ali G3 (Kee, 4/18) — 5-6 wide 2nd turn, leaned in, rallied; 92 speed figure
- Won OC100k/b at OP (2/7) — 2-wide, angled 5-wide in lane, rally; 95 speed figure
- Trainer Walsh: 50% wins this meet (2 sts, 1-0-0) — same as Navajo Warrior's trainer
- Multiple graded stakes efforts (Ben Ali, Sycamore G2, Suburban G2) — proven at this level
- P-style runs counter to week's bias; needs clean trip from off the pace at 1⅜m
- Ran 4th in last year's Pimlico Special G3 (shoe fell off on track) — excused effort
| Horse | ML | Prime Power | Best Dirt Spd | Last Race Fig | Days Off | Key Angle / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 Navajo Warrior | 5/2 | 141.2 | 107 | 107 | 55 | Best speed by far; Joseph/Prat hot; E/P suits bias |
| #7 Yo Daddy | 3/1 | 141.9 | 101 | 101 (est.) | 41 | Best PP; won Excelsior L; poor G3 trainer record |
| #3 San Siro | 6/1 | 135.3 | 98 | 92 | 27 | Walsh barn; 3rd Ben Ali G3; excused PimSpcl last yr |
| #4 Awesome Aaron | 9/2 | 138.0 | 105 | 91 | 27 | WON last year's Pimlico Special G3 (105 fig)! |
| #1 Maclean's Rook | 4/1 | 137.4 | 101 | 94 | 62 | Won CNL 3/14; Trombetta hot; home track; 62-day layoff |
| #6 Duke of Duval | 5/1 | 140.2 | 93 | 93 | 27 | Asmussen barn; 3W in 2025; poor recent form in 2026 |
| #5 Xcellent Start | 30/1 | 128.2 | 94 | 85 | 21 | Beaten by weaker last out; class leap too large |
Note: Awesome Aaron (#4, 9/2) won this exact race last year (Pimlico Special G3, 5/16/25, 105 speed figure). He is eligible to improve in his 3rd start since layoff (17% wins) and carries legitimate contender status at 9/2.
Race 12 Wagering Strategy
Win#2 Navajo Warrior · #7 Yo Daddy
Exacta2 → 7, 3, 4, 1 · 7 → 2, 3, 4 · Box: 2, 7
Trifecta2, 7 / 2, 7, 3, 4 / 2, 7, 3, 4, 1
Pick 5 SinglesBudget: #2 · Standard: #2, #7 · Full Coverage: #2, #7, #4
13
George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes — Grade II · $300,000 · 1⅛ Miles (Dirt)
Pick 5 Leg 5 · 3-Year-Old Fillies · No Lasix · Post ~6:14 PM · 10 Starters · Leg B Two-Day All Stakes Pick 5
E1 Par 89
E2 Par 94
Late Speed Par 88
Speed Par 94
The Black-Eyed Susan G2 closes the sequence and is the most important race on the card — a $300,000 test for 3-year-old fillies at a mile and an eighth, one day before the Preakness. The race-type statistics are exceptional: 44% favorite wins, 87% ITM in comparable 3yo G2 filly routes. The field of 10 is wide open on paper, but two horses have clear structural advantages: Braken Poppa (#5, 7/2) owns the fastest dirt speed figure in the field (93) from an unbeaten 4-for-4 record, and My Miss Mo (#10, 7/2) enters off a 92 speed figure and a 2nd in the GP Oaks G2 with the most legitimate graded stakes experience.
★ Top Pick — Race 13 · Black-Eyed Susan G2
#5 Braken Poppa
7/2 ML · Aurelius Maximus × Fab Fox · Asmussen (29% T/J combo) / Ortiz JL · 4-for-4 unbeaten · Best dirt speed in field (93) · Won Crescent City Oaks B100k Mar 21
- UNBEATEN in 4 career starts — the only horse in this field with a perfect record
- Best dirt speed in field (93) — from Crescent City Oaks B100k win (FG, 3/21): sent, set pace, drew off
- Won La Birdmeryer B100k (FG, 2/28) at *1.00 — released inside, pressing, bid clear; 93 speed figure
- E-style running: suits the dirt route speed bias (63% meet, 60% week) and E/P impact (1.35 meet)
- Asmussen barn: 29% wins with Ortiz JL in last 60 days (24 sts, +0.17 ROI) — hot combo
- Trainer Asmussen: 15% wins in Graded Stakes (322 sts, +0.16 ROI) — solid for this class
- 55-day layoff since Crescent City Oaks — 46-90 days away angle only 16% wins (1,475 sts); concern
- Race-type stats: 44% fav. wins in this race type; structural argument for market leaders
- Has not raced at 1⅛m (longest previous race was 1 1/32m) — distance question
Value — Race 13
#10 My Miss Mo
7/2 ML · Uncle Mo × In a Dream · Joseph Jr S (T/J 19% L60) / Gaffalione · Best last-race speed (92) · 2nd GP Oaks G2
- Best last-race speed figure in field (92) — ran 2nd in GP Oaks G2 (3/28); ins, 2-wide upper, 2nd best
- Also ran 2nd in Davona Dale G2 (GP, 2/28) — 3 consecutive 2nd-place finishes in graded company
- Has faced the toughest competition of any horse in this field — genuine G2 experience
- Best dirt speed close to the average winning speed per BrisNet
- Gaffalione is an elite jockey; Saffie Joseph Jr. (same barn as Race 12 top pick) is hot
- 48-day layoff; 23% wins for 46-90 days away (961 sts) — acceptable
- Has never won (0W-3P in 5 career starts) — the biggest concern; will she ever break through?
Longshot — Race 13
#7 Jumping the Gun
3/1 ML · Gun Runner × Breaking Bread · Simoff / Saez L · Best prime power (134.0) · 2nd off layoff bounce
- Prime Power 134.0 — highest in field; career best 90 speed figure
- Ran 3rd in Weber City Miss B150k (LRL, 4/18) — bore out start, wide; 79 fig; excusable
- 2nd in Demoiselle G2 (Aqu, 12/6/25) — chased 2p, up for 2nd; 90 speed figure
- Won Small Wonder S100k (Del, 9/14/25) at *0.10 — dominant; 90 speed figure
- 2nd off layoff angle: 10% wins (39 sts, -1.10 ROI) — poor trainer angle; main concern
- Failed as favorite last race; Gun Runner × Quality Road bloodlines give stamina for 1⅛m
| Horse | ML | Prime Power | Best Dirt Spd | Last Race Fig | Days Off | Key Angle / Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 Braken Poppa | 7/2 | 133.3 | 93 | 82 | 55 | Unbeaten; best dirt speed; E-type suits bias; layoff |
| #10 My Miss Mo | 7/2 | 133.6 | 92 | 92 | 48 | Best last-race fig; G2 experience; 0 wins in 5 starts |
| #7 Jumping the Gun | 3/1 | 134.0 | 90 | 79 | 27 | Best PP; 2nd Demoiselle G2; poor 2nd-off-layoff trainer |
| #3 Holly's Holiday | 6/1 | 125.3 | 86 | 86 | 27 | Won Valley of Vapors B200k (OP 4/18); 3rd off layoff |
| #9 A. P.'s Girl | 5/1 | 129.3 | 85 | 85 | 27 | 2nd last out (Weber City Ms, LRL 4/18); Ortiz Jr; poor G3 trainer |
| #2 Ivy Girl | 15/1 | 126.0 | 85 | 85 | 27 | Won Weber City Ms (LRL 4/18) — came from far back at 26/1 |
| #6 Haute Diva | 15/1 | 128.7 | 85 | 78 | 48 | Won Cash Run B175k (GP 1/1); poor G2 trainer record (3%) |
| #8 Majestic Lucia | 12/1 | 123.8 | 83 (est.) | 83 | 41 | Won OC75k (Tampa 4/4); massive class jump; no G2 record |
| #4 Savor It | 30/1 | 124.6 | 84 | 84 | 32 | Won OC75k (Prx 4/13); 0% G2 trainer record (14 sts) |
| #1 Miss Fulton Gal | 30/1 | 126.2 | 84 | 79 | 27 | Local LRL filly; speed well below G2 par; deep longshot |
Race 13 (Black-Eyed Susan G2) Wagering Strategy
Win#5 Braken Poppa · #10 My Miss Mo · #7 Jumping the Gun
Exacta5 → 10, 7, 3, 9 · 10 → 5, 7, 3 · Box: 5, 10
Trifecta5, 10 / 5, 10, 7, 3 / 5, 10, 7, 3, 9
Superfecta5, 10 / 5, 10, 7 / 5, 10, 7, 3, 9 / all others
Daily DoubleR12: 2, 7 / R13: 5, 10 — 4 combos; strong sequence
Pick 5 SinglesBudget: #5 · Standard: #5, #10 · Full Coverage: #5, #10, #7
Late Pick 5 — Suggested Ticket Structures
🎯 Budget Ticket — Single / Single / Single / Single / Single · $2 Base
Leg 1 · Race 9
#3 Coach MazzulaHilltop L125K · 1 Mile Turf
Leg 2 · Race 10
#2 Margie's IntentionDuPont Distaff L125K
Leg 3 · Race 11
#5 Saturday FlirtThe Very One B100K
Leg 4 · Race 12
#2 Navajo WarriorPimlico Special G3
Leg 5 · Race 13
#5 Braken PoppaBlack-Eyed Susan G2
1 × 1 × 1 × 1 × 1 = 1 combo × $2 = $2 total cost. The Russell barn's home track specialist anchors Leg 1. The clearest single on the card (Margie's Intention) is the only horse needed in Leg 2. Saturday Flirt's dominant turf figures close out Leg 3. Navajo Warrior's 107 figure towers over the Pimlico Special field. Braken Poppa — the only unbeaten filly in the Black-Eyed Susan — closes the sequence. Five singles, maximum conviction, minimum cost.
📊 Standard Ticket — Two / One / Two / Two / Two · $2 Base
Leg 1 · Race 9
#3 Coach Mazzula#2 Ultimate Love
Leg 2 · Race 10
#2 Margie's Intention
Leg 3 · Race 11
#5 Saturday Flirt#3 Lost and Found
Leg 4 · Race 12
#2 Navajo Warrior#7 Yo Daddy
Leg 5 · Race 13
#5 Braken Poppa#10 My Miss Mo
2 × 1 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 16 combos × $2 = $32 total cost. Covers Ultimate Love in Race 9 (the talent gap with the field is real, even with the layoff). Singles Margie's Intention in the DuPont (no excuse not to single her). Adds Lost and Found in The Very One (Russell barn, won last, hot combo). Adds Yo Daddy in the Pimlico Special (won Excelsior L150k, prime power leader). Adds My Miss Mo in the Black-Eyed Susan (best last-race speed, G2 graded experience). Recommended structure for most bettors — balances coverage and cost.
🔥 Full Coverage Ticket — Three / One / Three / Three / Three · $1 Base
Leg 1 · Race 9
#3 Coach Mazzula#2 Ultimate Love #5 Brat Pack
Leg 2 · Race 10
#2 Margie's Intention
Leg 3 · Race 11
#5 Saturday Flirt#3 Lost and Found #8 Sunna
Leg 4 · Race 12
#2 Navajo Warrior#7 Yo Daddy #4 Awesome Aaron
Leg 5 · Race 13
#5 Braken Poppa#10 My Miss Mo #7 Jumping the Gun
3 × 1 × 3 × 3 × 3 = 81 combos × $1 = $81 total cost. Full coverage across all five legs. Adds Brat Pack in R9 — the Graham/Ruiz combination with a sharp bullet that could spring an upset. Still singles Margie's Intention in the DuPont (she is the star play; adding horses here wastes money). Adds Sunna in The Very One — pace control from inside, E/P style, won her last start. Adds Awesome Aaron in the Pimlico Special — won this race last year at 105 speed figure, eligible to improve 3rd off layoff. Adds Jumping the Gun in the Black-Eyed Susan — best prime power, Saez up, 2nd Demoiselle G2 experience. Every analytically defensible horse across the sequence is covered.
Selections Summary — Races 9 Through 13
Race 9 ⭐ Top
#3 Coach Mazzula
6/1
★★★★
Race 9 💰 Value
#2 Ultimate Love
4/5
★★★★
Race 9 Alt
#5 Brat Pack
8/1
★★★
Race 10 ⭐ STAR PLAY
#2 Margie's Intention
1/1
★★★★★
Race 10 💰 Value
#4 Complexity Jane
5/1
★★★
Race 10 Alt
#7 Waveless
6/1
★★★
Race 11 ⭐ Top
#5 Saturday Flirt
6/5
★★★★
Race 11 💰 Value
#3 Lost and Found
3/1
★★★★
Race 11 Alt
#8 Sunna
6/1
★★★
Race 12 ⭐ Top
#2 Navajo Warrior
5/2
★★★★
Race 12 💰 Value
#7 Yo Daddy
3/1
★★★
Race 12 Alt
#3 San Siro / #4 Awesome Aaron
6/1 / 9/2
★★★
Race 13 ⭐ Top
#5 Braken Poppa
7/2
★★★★
Race 13 💰 Value
#10 My Miss Mo
7/2
★★★★
Race 13 Alt
#7 Jumping the Gun
3/1
★★★
One star single anchors the entire sequence. Race 10 — Margie's Intention in the Allaire DuPont Distaff — is the clearest single on the afternoon. A 99 speed figure in the Beldame G2. A win in last year's Black-Eyed Susan G2. A Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr. combination running at 35% over the past 60 days. The favorite historical data at this class level (36% W, 68% ITM) demands respect. Single this horse. Use the Russell barn in Races 9 and 11 — Coach Mazzula won on this turf 27 days ago, and Saturday Flirt's 99 career speed figure is the fastest in The Very One by a wide margin. Navajo Warrior's 107 figure in Race 12 is similarly decisive. The Black-Eyed Susan closes the ticket with two co-favorites both holding legitimate claims — Braken Poppa's unbeaten record and pace style fit the bias, My Miss Mo's graded experience makes her the logical second. One anchor, four opinionated legs.