Five Races Before
The Derby

Connections to Back — Derby Day Edition

The trainer and jockey landscape on Derby Day at Churchill is concentrated at the very top of the game. Understanding who is hot — and who is stepping in as a situational play — is essential before dissecting the individual races.

The opening race of the Pick 5 sequence is a maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles on dirt — a format that historically rewards horses with the best back numbers and the strongest connections. The pace pars are pedestrian (87 E1), meaning pace pressure won't be extreme and the race should set up for a horse with some late kick. The weekly track bias shows the S-style as the dominant force at 8.5 furlongs (35% of wins), but with a late pace par of 85 the closer won't get the perfect setup either.

Powershift (3/1, Pletcher/Ortiz Jr.) is the most logically sound play in the race. He owns the top Prime Power (133.0) by a meaningful margin, the best back speed figure in the field (98), and carries the most significant class advantage: he finished sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last out, which — however disappointing — represents a vastly tougher level than today's $120,000 maiden. Pletcher's 22% strike rate with second-time Lasix horses is a supplemental positive. The only legitimate concern is 56 days between races, but Pletcher trains horses to fire fresh.

Winston Ave (9/2, Baffert/Hernandez J.) is the alternative play and an equally compelling argument. He carries the highest last-race speed figure in the field (91) from a sprint effort that suggested he wants distance. Adding blinkers today is Baffert's most reliable improvement tool, and his 38% strike rate in the "third off layoff" scenario is among the best in the country. The concern is that he failed as the favorite last time — though in a sprint against a different type of competition. Both horses belong on the ticket.

Silent Way (4/1, Eurton/Prat) has the right jockey and solid back figures but comes with the dual negatives of failing as a favorite last race and a trainer who is 6% in his second route race spot. Bourbon Dream (5/1) is a one-run horse with a ceiling nobody knows yet — a logical if thin inclusion in wider tickets.

The second leg features 12 three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on dirt in an allowance condition — the classic spot where a horse coming out of a Grade I with a disappointing result meets a field that has never been close to that level. The track bias at 8.5 furlongs favors late runners (S-type 35% of wins at this distance for the meet), but with a late pace par of 86 the race isn't drawing out the deepest closers. A pace horse that can sustain its run is the archetypal winner here.

Taptastic (3/1, Asmussen/Ortiz Jr.) is the most compelling class relief play on the card. He finished third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out at Oaklawn — a top-shelf event won by Renegade and featuring Silent Tactic. The difference in class between that field and today's allowance condition is enormous. He carries the tied-best Prime Power (135.0), the second-best ACL (116.0), and a Tapit pedigree that screams route improvement. Asmussen's 21% rate with second-time Lasix horses adds another layer. The legitimate knock is that his only dirt win came on a muddy track — but at this price against this competition, the risk-reward is clear.

Our Moneyman (6/1, Calhoun/Concepcion) holds the other tied-best Prime Power (135.0) and won his last race convincingly in the Crescent City Derby (100k at FG). His 3-3-0 record in six starts is extraordinary consistency for a horse this young. The weakness: jockey Concepcion is hitting 13% this year, and he's been primarily a shorter-distance specialist stepping up in trip. He belongs on the ticket.

Lincoln's Law (10/1, Bauer/Gaffalione) is the value flag. He owns the fastest speed figure in the field (95 dirt best), is adding blinkers for the first time (33% trainer rate in that spot), and has Gaffalione — who is 43% this week — in the irons. He was beaten in his last start by a more forwardly placed winner but flashed serious closing ability. At 10/1, the price compensates for the risk.

Race 3 is the most genuinely competitive leg of the sequence and the one that demands the widest spread. Fourteen horses go a flat mile on dirt at the NW2X allowance level — the deepest condition in the Pick 5. The bias data at this distance shows E and E/P runners as collectively strong (30% and 22% respectively), with posts 1-3 offering a meaningful advantage (20% average win rate). The week sample shows pace runners (P-style) at 100% — a small sample but worth noting against the larger meet trend.

Praetor (3/1, Brown/Prat) is the most defensible single in this race. He owns the top back speed figure (103), the highest Prime Power in the field at its tier (143.9), and came out of his last race with clear merit — he led to deep stretch in an OC $80k/NW2x sprint at Keeneland before yielding to a fresh horse. Chad Brown's 29% rate with beaten favorites is one of the best in the industry, and Prat is rolling. The critique: he was the favorite last time and gave it away in the final strides. Brown knows how to fix that.

John Hancock (6/1, Cox/Ortiz Jr.) presents the sequence's most tantalizing question: a horse with the #1 Prime Power (144.1) on the card returning from a 14-month layoff. His 2025 resume was elite — he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Listed, 250k) and nearly won the Louisiana Derby before tiring. Cox's 28% "90+ days away" rate and the torrid Cox/Ortiz Jr. combination (19 9-5-1 last 14 days) argue strongly for taking the chance. The price at 6/1 is generous given the talent level. The layoff is real; the upside is enormous.

Who Dey (9/2) is the most experienced horse in the field with 14 career starts and a 104 best speed figure at a mile — but he hasn't raced since November and went off at 50-1 in the Clark G2. Vibe (6/1, Pletcher/Saez) won his last race impressively but is stepping up in class on only his third lifetime start — ceiling unknown, exposure limited.

The Derby City Distaff is a Grade I at seven furlongs for fillies and mares — a small but elite six-horse field that features four legitimate Grade I-level runners. The pars are demanding (97 E1, 101 speed par), the track bias at seven furlongs favors E/P and P runners (38% and 23% respectively), and 76% of winners at this level and distance in comparable stakes have been under 5/1. This is a race where the morning line is nearly as informative as the bias data.

Ways and Means (8/5, Brown/Ortiz J.L.) is the morning-line favorite and — statistically — the most talented horse in the race. Her Prime Power of 150.9 leads the field. She won the Bed o' Roses G2 last June by 6.5 lengths with a 107 speed figure, the best number any horse in this field has ever run at seven furlongs. The problem is the 330-day layoff. She has not raced since June 6, 2025, and even for a trainer as skilled as Chad Brown at firing horses off long freshening, asking a mare to step into a Grade I on Derby Day after 11 months is a significant ask. Use underneath, not on top.

Splendora (2/1, Baffert/Prat) is the play. She won the Beholder Mile G1 at Santa Anita on March 7 — just 56 days ago — and before that won the DW Lukas G2 at 7 furlongs with a scintillating 105 speed figure. Her 12-7-4-0 career record shows a mare who simply does not lose ground without a fight. Baffert's 37% rate when a winner last time out is among his strongest documented angles. Prat is hot. She drops back to her optimal 7-furlong distance. This is the sequence's closest thing to a single.

R Disaster (6/1) is the pace horse who will make this interesting. She set fractions and held on to win the Hockenheim Breeders G3 last out and brings the best early pace figures (107 E1). If the pace gets hot, she could stick and force errors from the closers. Include at 6/1 in wider plays.

The final leg of the Early Pick 5 is also the most important from a structural standpoint. The Twin Spires Turf Sprint G2 at 5.5 furlongs is the leg where the bias data directly contradicts the morning line — and in these situations, the data almost always wins. The track fact is unambiguous: pace-style (P) runners have won 71% of all 5.5-furlong turf races at Churchill this meet. Early-speed types have won zero. The rail post has zero wins. Post 7 (the optimal outside position for pace runners at this distance) is the single most important piece of information in the race.

My Boy Prince (5/2, Casse/Ortiz J.L.) won this exact race last month at Keeneland (the Shakertown G2) and is legitimately the most talented horse in the field. His Prime Power (157.8) is second in the field, his back figures are elite, and Jose Ortiz is the hottest jockey on the grounds. There is just one problem: he draws post 1 (the rail), where the win rate at 5.5f turf this meet is exactly 0%. His E/P running style further compounds the bias issue. The Keeneland winner, in the rail, running early, at Churchill's turf sprint distance. This is the exact profile the bias data says to oppose.

Litigation (3/1, Lynch/Ortiz Jr.) is the morning-line favorite with the top Prime Power (160.7) and is tied for the best turf speed figure. He also draws the rail — the same 0% post as My Boy Prince. Two legitimate morning-line choices, both in the kill spot. The crowd will still bet them heavily because of their figures. That creates value elsewhere.

Yellow Card (9/2, McCarthy/Prat) draws post 7 — the single best post for a closerly runner at this distance and surface. He is technically classified as an S-style (slow starter), which might seem counterintuitive given the pace bias, but at 5.5 furlongs the critical distinction is not early vs. late — it is post position. His last race was a second-place finish in the Shakertown G2 behind My Boy Prince, beaten only 1.25 lengths. He won the Clocker's Corner 100k earlier in the year. Prat is the best tactical jockey in the race to pick his way through. At 9/2 with the ideal post, he is the value play of the sequence.