Where the Turf Meets the Surf · Ultimate PP Analysis
Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 11 races · First post 5:00 PT · Featuring the Gr.1 Bing Crosby S. ($400,000)
An eleven-race Saturday built around the Gr.1 Bing Crosby Stakes at six furlongs. The card mixes cheap dirt sprints, a rich California-bred turf program, and a pair of two-year-old spots. The analysis below is drawn entirely from the Brisnet Ultimate PPs supplied for this card — Prime Power, speed and pace figures, running styles, jockey/trainer statistics, breeding, class relief, and the meet/week track-bias data printed on each summary page.
Scope note: everything here is derived from the past-performance data in the program provided — figures, connections, workouts, and the track-bias tables. It is objective handicapping analysis, not a prediction of results, and wagering carries risk. Prices shown are morning-line (ML) odds and will change at post.
Speed favoring
Meet totals show a strong speed bias at 6f (86%, 57% wire) and 6½f (93%, 64% wire). Early/rail types (E & E/P) carry high impact values. Play the front end in the dirt sprints. Week-to-date data is softer and closer-friendly, so it is not absolute.
Balanced, late edge
8f turf shows a moderate 57% speed bias but late/closing (P & S) types still win a healthy share; the 8.5f sample tilts clearly to closers (S impact 1.73, late 33% of wins). Presser/closer types are live in the turf routes.
Rail workable
Rail-to-inside posts (1–3) grade out fine across the dirt configurations; the turf routes show the outer posts (8+) with the highest impact at 8f. Nothing extreme — draw is a tiebreaker, not a filter.
Watch these barns
Baffert (5:1-1-0), O'Neill (14:4-0-2, 29%), D'Amato (20:4-4-3, 20%) and Rispoli (15:5-0-6, 33% and flagged "hot") are live all card. Kimura (14:4-0-1) is the meet's hot rider.
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kinzlee'scharisma 4/1 | 120.6 (1st) | Highest last-race speed (82) and best dirt figure of the field; drops in from turf/higher levels. Ran 2nd vs tougher last out. Only knock: 0-for-7 lifetime, a hanger. |
| 2 | Cammy's Girl 6/1 | 117.2 (2nd) | Hot rider Kimura, sharp 3f work, two placings from 6 starts, second-best figs. Trainer 0-for-form is the caution. |
| 6 | Smokin Hot Stuff 7/2 | 114.3 (4th) | Switches to red-hot Rispoli, best dirt speed above the winning average, sharp work. First start off >2 months. |
| 1 | My Girl Mia 5/2 | 103.6 (5th) | ML favorite on O'Neill/Jaramillo (29% barn) but figures a clear notch below the top three; needs a step forward off the layoff. |
| 5 | Swimmingly 4/1 | 114.9 (3rd) | Presser with a 76 last out; competitive figs but was beaten by weaker last time. |
Kinzlee'scharisma owns the top Prime Power and the fastest last-race number while dropping in class — the standout on paper, though her maiden status and habit of finishing second demand a saver. With the strong early bias, the pace-pressing pair Cammy's Girl and Smokin Hot Stuff (new hot rider) are the logical exotics partners.
Top: 7 · With: 2, 6, 1
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bako Country 4/1 | 114.2 (1st) | Top Prime Power, drops from maiden-special to maiden-claiming, blinkers on, Juan Hernandez (22%) up, sharp 3f bullet-type work. Turf-to-dirt angle and 1st-time blinkers the questions. |
| 6 | Treximo 4/1 | 113.7 (2nd) | Highest last-race speed (tie, 76), true early speed that fits the bias, drops in, ran 2nd vs tougher. Best dirt figure above the winning average. |
| 13 | Sun Chaser 6/1 | 112.0 (5th) | Hot Kimura + McCarthy (22%), drops sharply, early-speed style, turf-to-dirt figures-improver. Third-fastest last race (73). |
| 10 | Bucks Action 8/1 | 113.2 (3rd) | Returns to dirt, drops, Mdn-to-MdnClm angle at 20% for barn. Closer profile against a speed bias is the concern. |
| 9 | Texas Wildcat 12/1 | 106.1 (7th) | Best speed at the distance (80), three straight seconds, drops in, sharp work — perennial bridesmaid. |
A speed-favoring sprint that sets up for the front-runners. Bako Country tops the figures and adds blinkers with a live rider; Treximo brings tactical speed and the highest last-race number into a bias that rewards it. Sun Chaser (Kimura, big class drop) is the improver to include underneath.
Top: 2, 6 · With: 13, 10, 9
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Certitude 9/2 | 145.9 (1st) | Top Prime Power; hardened turf specialist (20-for-career on grass), Sadler/Rosario, sharp 5f work, tactical E/P speed. Best turf figure near the winning average. |
| 1 | May Day Ready 7/2 | 144.7 (2nd) | Class of the race on form — $1.3M earner, BC Filly & Mare Turf runner-up, multiple graded wins. Drops into a listed spot, Mandella/Kimura, rail post winning at 20%. Highest speed figure at the distance. |
| 2 | Saqqara Sands 3/1 | — (NA) | European group-class import, 3 wins at the trip abroad; U.S./Callaghan debut off a long layoff. Class drop but form-cycle unknown — the wild card. |
| 7 | Resolve 5/1 | 144.1 (3rd) | Consistent closer, beaten a length last out, Juan Hernandez, best turf speed near the winning average. Fits, may need pace. |
| 8 | Baltic Fire 6/1 | 139.2 (5th) | Highest last-race speed (90), won last out, Mullins barn hot with last-race winners (30%). Moves up in class. |
The figures cluster tightly at the top. Certitude is the most reliable turf number and gets a live rail-adjacent trip; May Day Ready is the class dropdown of the field and the fastest at the distance — the one they all have to beat if she fires off the layoff. Saqqara Sands is the intriguing Euro drop-in, and Resolve/Baltic Fire round out the exotics.
Top: 3, 1 · With: 2, 7, 8
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nayar 5/2 | 125.5 (1st) | $850k purchase, Baffert/Rosario, top Prime Power and last-race speed (77) after a beaten-favorite 2nd in debut. Sharp work. Should improve second time out. |
| 2 | Domus 2/1 | — (NA) | Baffert/Hernandez first-time starter; barn hits 33% with debut 2yos, jock 34% with first-timers, sharp bullet-style 4f work. The live firster. |
| 5 | Midnight Ovation 4/1 | 120.5 (2nd) | Only other with a race; ran 3rd at Los Alamitos, hot Kimura, sharp 5f work, well-bet in debut. Experience edge over the firsters. |
| 4 | Whiskey Bridge 8/1 | — (NA) | O'Neill/Jaramillo firster, hot 22% tnr-jky combo, sharp 4f bullet-type move, sire wins 19% with first-timers. |
| 1 | Lubies Prince 8/1 | — (NA) | Mandella/Rispoli firster; rail post winning 20%, dam 2-for-2 producing winners, breeding fits the sprint. |
Two experienced runners against a batch of expensive first-timers. Nayar has the top figures and the debut foundation to move forward; Domus is the Baffert firster the board will respect. Midnight Ovation gives you the seasoning angle. In a small 2yo field with a speed bias, tactical position matters — Nayar and Midnight Ovation both project forwardly.
Top: 7, 2 · With: 5, 4, 1
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warm Sun and Brew 5/2 | 137.6 (1st) | Top Prime Power, six straight in-the-money, Fresu/Glatt, best turf speed near the winning average. Consistent E/P type that fits. |
| 8 | Chromeflash 3/1 | 137.2 (2nd) | Won last out (6.5f turf allowance), Berrios (22% meet), best turf speed above the winning average, sharp 5f work. Sprint-to-route stretch-out the question. |
| 4 | Trump Era 6/1 | 131.3 (4th) | Highest last-race speed (89), drops in, ran 2nd vs tougher, best turf figure above the winning average, Maldonado up. |
| 3 | Refocus 12/1 | 109.0 (10th) | Back to turf where he's best; won at this level in April. Poor recent dirt figures cloud it, but the class fits. |
| 9 | Druidic 20/1 | 119.1 (9th) | Highest speed figure at the distance and best turf speed of the field on back class; 46-starter grinder returning to a route. |
Deep, competitive Cal-bred turf mile. Warm Sun and Brew and Chromeflash separate on Prime Power and both bring live connections and speed figures near/above the winning average. Trump Era is the class-dropper with the fastest last-race number. Given the balanced-to-closer turf profile, Druidic is a price play whose best figures at the trip are the fastest in the field.
Top: 6, 8 · With: 4, 3, 9
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shady Stripes 3/1 | 117.7 (1st) | Top Prime Power, highest last-race speed (86), won last, best dirt speed above the winning average, E/P style that fits the wire-heavy bias. Moves up but figures dominate. |
| 2 | Violences Ohr 6/1 | 117.2 (2nd) | Best dirt speed of the field, drops in, 31%-when-dropping barn, early speed for the bias. Only 1 win in 15 — reliability the knock. |
| 14 | Tate Batz 4/1 | 114.7 (3rd) | (AE) O'Neill/Jaramillo, ran 2nd last, hot 22% combo, presser that can stalk the speed. In if it draws. |
| 4 | Pretty Cecy 5/1 | 113.3 (4th) | Ran 2nd vs similar last, Pereira, tactical E/P. Consistent but a notch below on speed. |
| 9 | A Fleet Ride 7/2 | 111.8 (5th) | Ran 2nd last, 25%-1st-after-claim angle, but figures rank mid-pack and the closing style fights the bias. |
The strongest bias race on the card — 93% speed and 64% wire at 6½f. Shady Stripes tops Prime Power, last-race speed, and best dirt figure with the right running style; she's the controlling speed. Violences Ohr (fastest raw dirt figure, big class drop) and Tate Batz (if the AE draws) are the pace-adjacent threats.
Top: 7 · With: 2, 14, 4, 9
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ventry Strand 7/2 | 143.2 (1st) | Prime Power towers over the field (143 vs next 131), highest last-race speed (89), best turf speed above the winning average, drops from stakes company, Sadler + hot Rispoli, sharp 5f work. The class-and-figure standout. |
| 3 | Allequin Summer 5/1 | 131.6 (2nd) | Won last out (8f turf OC), Berrios (22%), improving 3yo. Chief threat if Ventry Strand is vulnerable off the layoff. |
| 9 | Double Jab 5/1 | 130.5 (3rd) | Best turf speed of the field on back class, 20% barn at routes, ran 2nd last. Has never gone a route, though — the query. |
| 1 | Known Idea 4/1 | 128.6 (4th) | Highest speed figure at the distance, rail post winning 20%, 36% 2nd-after-claim barn, ran 2nd vs similar last. |
| 6 | Stylishlyacclaimed 5/1 | 124.6 (7th) | Finished 3rd vs similar last, high-% Jaramillo, may improve cutting back to a mile. |
Ventry Strand is the most confident play on the card's back half: a 12-length Prime Power edge, the field's fastest last-race number, a class drop from stakes level, and top connections. He is the logical single to anchor the Late Pick 5. If you spread, Allequin Summer (won last) is the first alternative, with Double Jab and Known Idea next.
Single: 10 · Spread backups: 3, 9, 1
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | March of Time 7/2 | 137.4 (1st) | Top Prime Power, Baffert/Hernandez, won last out, 2-for-4 lifetime with a sharp bullet-style 5f work; 36% "won-last" barn angle. Stretches to a mile/route — the one caveat. |
| 5 | Midnight Mammoth 4/1 | 135.5 (3rd) | Highest last-race speed (100), ran 2nd last, best dirt speed of the field, veteran G2-placed router, sharp work. Most seasoned and fastest last-out. |
| 2 | Bartholdy 8/1 | 135.9 (2nd) | Second-best Prime Power, finished 3rd last, 21% btn-favorite barn. Consistent stakes-level runner dropping in. |
| 7 | Indispensable 4/1 | 131.1 (5th) | Drops in, Sadler, highest speed figure at the distance; graded-stakes campaigner returning off >6 months. |
| 8 | Mc Vay 8/1 | 135.4 (4th) | Former $1.25M yearling, drops in, Eurton, 22% 46–90-day-away angle, finished 3rd vs tougher last. |
Tightly matched dirt mile with a speed-favoring track. March of Time (Baffert, won last, top figure) and Midnight Mammoth (fastest last-race number, best dirt speed, seasoned) are the two most likely; Bartholdy and Indispensable are the exotics/spread horses. Because March of Time is stretching out and the field is deep, this is a spread leg, not a single.
Core: 3, 5 · Spread: 2, 7, 8
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Can't Sleep 8/1 | 143.4 (1st) | Top Prime Power, best turf speed (tie) is fastest in the field, high-% Jaramillo, Gaines. Eligible to improve 2nd off the layoff; failed as fav last, so a price at 8/1. |
| 6 | Amorita 3/1 | 140.9 (2nd) | Mandella/Fresu, 24% NonGraded-Stk barn, best turf speed near the winning average, sharp 4f work; may improve cutting back to 5f. E/P style ideal for a turf dash. |
| 4 | Tahini 8/1 | 136.4 (3rd) | Highest last-race speed (95), won last out, hot Rispoli, early speed. Moves up but the tactical speed fits a 5f sprint perfectly. |
| 1 | Saratoga Special 7/2 | 129.3 (8th) | Best turf speed (tie) is fastest in field, tactical speed, Rosario. Prime Power lags but the raw turf figure is elite. |
| 10 | Kuwaitya 10/1 | 134.2 (4th) | D'Amato, best turf speed near the winning average, eligible to improve 2nd off the layoff. Beaten by weaker last, so needs a bounce-back. |
A wide-open 5f turf dash where four or five have a case. Can't Sleep (top Prime Power, elite turf figure, second off the layoff) and Amorita (Mandella, distance-cutback, E/P speed) are the core; Tahini (won last, fastest last number, hot rider) and Saratoga Special (co-fastest turf figure) must be used. Speed and clean early position decide these sprints — favor the tactical types.
Core: 3, 6 · Use: 4, 1, 10
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cornucopian 3/1 | 148.0 (1st) | Top Prime Power on the card, highest last-race speed (103) tie, won last (Aristides-G3), best dirt speed of the field, Baffert/Hernandez, 36% won-last barn, 3-for-4 in 2026. Lightly raced and improving — the one to beat. |
| 3 | Dr. Venkman 4/1 | 142.4 (2nd) | Multiple graded winner ($884k), highest speed figure at the distance, switches to hot Rispoli, best dirt speed near the winning average, Glatt. Eligible to improve 2nd off the layoff; proven G1 quality. |
| 1 | Maximum Bourbon 7/2 | 142.3 (3rd) | Highest last-race speed (103) tie, won last, best dirt speed of the field, D'Amato, 4-for-6 lifetime, true early speed. Moves up but has been dominant. Post 1 the only nit. |
| 5 | Stronghold 4/1 | 138.3 (5th) | Gr.1 winner ($1.34M — Santa Anita Derby), won last (Triple Bend-G3), D'Amato/Fresu, high-% barn. Class you can't dismiss even if the raw figures sit a touch behind. |
| 8 | Mad House 12/1 | 137.8 (6th) | 6 wins from 13, sharp work, 50% graded-stakes trainer angle, early speed. Threw in a clunker at the BC Sprint but rebounded to win two stakes since. Price flier. |
A genuine Gr.1 with four legitimate win threats. Cornucopian tops Prime Power and best dirt speed while improving for Baffert — the marginal top pick. Maximum Bourbon matches the fastest last-race number and best dirt speed with controlling early speed, and Dr. Venkman brings proven graded quality plus the hot-rider switch. Stronghold adds a bona-fide G1 winner. This is a use-all-four leg for the sequence; there is no single here.
Core: 6, 1, 3 · Must-use: 5 · Flier: 8
| # | Horse / ML | Prime Pwr | Key facts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kikuride 6/1 | 137.2 (2nd) | Best turf speed above the winning average, closing S-style that fits the 8.5f closer bias, switches to hot Juan Hernandez, 21% barn at allowances. Live at a price. |
| 10 | Take Another Card 7/2 | 139.8 (1st) | Top Prime Power, best turf speed (fastest in field), ran 2nd last, hot Rispoli, Callaghan. But 0-for-5 in 2026 with FOUR seconds — a chronic hanger you must beat or use carefully. |
| 3 | Lady In Paris 5/1 | 136.1 (3rd) | European stakes-placed import, D'Amato/Fresu, ran 2nd last out, closing style suits the trip. Second start with barn the mild query. |
| 5 | Miso Phansy 6/1 | 132.0 (6th) | Won last (8f turf), Ayuso/Powell, best turf speed near the winning average, E/P tactical speed. Multiple-graded-placed on back class. |
| 7 | America's Mark 5/1 | 135.9 (4th) | Finished 3rd last, blinkers on, best turf speed near the winning average, Berrios/Puype. First-time-blinkers barn record modest. |
A closer-friendly 8.5f turf finale. Take Another Card has the top figures but her four seconds in five 2026 starts make her a use-underneath rather than a single. Kikuride (closer profile fits the bias, hot rider switch) and Lady In Paris (Euro import, ran 2nd last) are the win-value plays; Miso Phansy (won last) and America's Mark (blinkers) complete it. Spread this leg.
Core: 2, 10, 3 · Use: 5, 7
50¢ Late Pick 5 · Races 7 – 11
The sequence is built around one anchor — Ventry Strand in Race 7, a 12-length Prime Power standout dropping from stakes company — and then spreads through a live turf dash (R9), the Gr.1 feature (R10), and two competitive routes. Below: the raw selections leg-by-leg, then three staking options.
How to think about it: Ticket A leans on the Race 7 anchor to keep the cost tiny and dares the other four legs to cooperate with the top picks. Ticket B keeps Ventry Strand plus one saver, widens the G1, and covers the two closer-friendly routes. Ticket C is the caution ticket for the Gr.1 chaos and the hanger in Race 11 — three deep in the anchor leg, four in the dirt mile, and a wider turf finale.