People keep bringing up the November game. UConn 74, Illinois 61 at Madison Square Garden on Black Friday. And yeah, okay — that happened. The Huskies won by 13 and it wasn't really that close. I get why it sticks in people's heads.
Here's what you need to know about that game: Keaton Wagler played 14 minutes and scored 3 points. Tarris Reed played 15 minutes because of foul trouble and scored 2 points on two free throws. Braylon Mullins played 10 minutes. Solo Ball played 28 minutes and carried UConn with 15 points because he was basically the only guy on the floor. That game was a glorified preseason exhibition between two teams that barely resembled what they are right now, and anyone using it as a real predictive tool for Saturday is lying to themselves.
Illinois is the No. 1 offense in the country. They've won four tournament games by an average of 17 points. They are deeper, more dangerous, and more battle-tested than anything UConn saw in November. Here is why the Illini are going to Indianapolis to play for a national championship.
The November Game Was Meaningless — Here's the Proof
Go back and look at that box score from MSG. Illinois had six field goals inside the arc all game. Six. They shot 21% from three — against a team they usually hit 34.7% against. Wagler played 14 minutes, took three shots, and had as many fouls (3) as points. Brad Underwood hadn't even fully committed to Wagler as the primary ball-handler yet — that shift happened after this exact game. Since Underwood put the ball in Wagler's hands as the full-time point guard, Wagler has averaged 19.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on 41.9% from three over 28 games. He posted 46 points at Purdue — the most ever scored by a visitor at Mackey Arena against a top-five team. That player wasn't in the November game.
"I expect that same type of game with UConn. I like to think we're better prepared now than we were in November."
— Brad Underwood, ahead of the Final FourAnd it wasn't just Wagler missing from that first game. UConn's Reed played 15 minutes with four fouls and barely registered. Mullins played 10 minutes. Dan Hurley himself has admitted this team looks completely different now. The November game is the biggest throwaway data point in the tournament. Throw it out.
Mirk and the Twins Are Going to Be a Problem UConn Cannot Solve
Let's talk about the size differential because it is enormous and it is real. Illinois lines up with David Mirkovic (6-9, 230) at the four and Tomislav Ivisic (7-1) at the five, with Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2, 250) coming off the bench. In November, Mirkovic got held to 8 points. He averages 13.5 for the season. And then this tournament happened.
29 points and 17 rebounds against Penn in Round 1. 12 rebounds against Iowa in the Elite Eight. Named to the All-Tournament team for the South Region. In November he was held to 8 points by UConn — the same UConn team that had no idea what he was about to become. Mirkovic can score in the post, hit threes, and clean the glass at a level most power forwards in this tournament can't match. He wants revenge from that November game. Illinois needs him to play like he has all tournament, and there's no reason to think he won't.
A 7-foot-1 center who shoots threes — and makes them at 35.7% on the season. He hits pick-and-pops, scores in the post, protects the rim, and passes better than any big man in college basketball. He broke the NCAA Tournament record for most three-pointers made by a 7-footer in a single game (5) last year against Xavier. Averaging 13 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season. If Illinois is running pick-and-pop sets out of their elite spread PnR attack — the highest pop rate in Synergy's database — and Tomislav is the popper, UConn is going to have to make some very uncomfortable choices defensively.
The older twin by four minutes. 7-foot-2 and 250 pounds coming off the bench — but don't let the bench role fool you. Zvonimir is averaging 2.0 blocks per game and ranks 4th nationally in block rate at 12.6%. He swatted five shots in the November game against UConn. Five. He shoots 51.2% from the field and provides an energy jolt and size that most teams simply cannot replicate off their bench. He and Tomislav have spoken all week about being physical with Reed from the opening tip. "You've got to be physical with him from the start," Zvonimir said. "You've got to be smart. You can't relax around him. As long as he's on the court, you have to be 100% focused, ready for a fight." The twins know what's at stake.
That frontcourt combination — Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, and Zvonimir Ivisic — is something UConn has not faced in this tournament. Illinois outscored Iowa 40-12 in the paint in the Elite Eight and outrebounded them 38-21. They outscored Houston by 10 despite Houston having the fourth-best defensive rating in the country. The Illini physically dominate. That doesn't stop at the Final Four.
Keaton Wagler is Not the Same Player UConn Held to 3 Points
In November, Wagler was still figuring out his role. Brad Underwood hadn't yet made the adjustment that turned him into one of the best freshmen in the country. He played 14 minutes. He took three shots. He had three fouls. He was a complementary player in a role that didn't fit him.
That player does not exist anymore.
Since being moved to primary ball handler, Wagler has been an absolute menace. He's a projected top-10 NBA Draft pick coming in ranked No. 149 nationally as a recruit. He scored 25 points with 7-for-7 from the free throw line to earn South Region MVP honors against Iowa. He is 6-foot-6, he shoots it off the dribble, off screens, off one dribble pull-ups, and he makes the right pass when defenses collapse. He is a matchup nightmare for a Silas Demary Jr. who is hobbled and has been inconsistent.
CBS SportsLine's model projects Wagler at 16.7 points in this game. That feels conservative based on what he's done in the tournament. UConn held Illinois to 21% from three in November. They will not hold Wagler to three points and 14 minutes again. The player walking into Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday is not the same guy who walked into MSG in November.
Fair Warning: Don't Sleep on What UConn Brings
This is not a blowout preview. UConn is a two-seed for a reason and Dan Hurley is one of the best coaches in the country. Tarris Reed Jr. is averaging 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament — that is historic production and Illinois has to account for him every single possession. Alex Karaban struggled against Duke but had 17+ in each of the first three tournament games and is 38.7% from three on the season — if he gets hot from the perimeter, it opens everything up. Solo Ball has gone cold lately (8.5 PPG in March after 14.1 November–February) but he can reawaken at any moment. And Demary — even at less than 100% — is a savvy veteran defender who knows exactly what he's doing. UConn has also been in tighter games: they beat Michigan State by four and Duke by one on a buzzer-beater. They know how to survive.
Why Illinois Wins Anyway
The Illini are the No. 1 offense in the country with a 131.7 offensive rating. They are No. 4 in KenPom's net rating at +34.41 — ahead of UConn (+29.11) by a significant margin. They have won four tournament games by an average of 17 points. They have done it different ways each time — over 100 points against Penn, a 10-point defensive grind against Houston, a physical domination against Iowa.
UConn's biggest structural weakness in this game is one of Illinois' biggest strengths. The Huskies rank 307th nationally in free throw rate — they do not put opponents on the line and they do not get there themselves. Illinois is the No. 1 team in the country in defensive free throw rate, meaning they foul less than anyone. That free throw disparity that hurts UConn in its losses? Illinois neutralizes it completely.
Illinois also does not turn the ball over. They have the lowest turnover percentage on defense in the entire country. There are no easy transition buckets for the Huskies in this game. Every basket has to be earned in the half court, and in a half-court fight, Illinois's frontcourt size is an overwhelming advantage.
The body of work says Illinois. The efficiency numbers say Illinois. The matchups say Illinois. And Wagler, Mirkovic, and the twins have spent all week thinking about the November game, knowing they let one go, knowing this version of themselves is different. That is a motivated group walking into Lucas Oil Stadium.
Dan Hurley texted Brad Underwood after that November game: "Let's meet up in Indy." He didn't mean for dinner. Well, Coach — you got your rematch. It's not going the way you planned.
I-L-L. 🧡