Big Weekend Stakes Preview: Ted Noffey Returns, the Mother Goose Goes Fall, and Turf Value at Churchill

This is the best race of the weekend, and it has a new home on the calendar. The Mother Goose used to be a spring race but now runs in the fall. Chad Brown and Flavien Prat won last year's edition with Fully Subscribed, and they're back with Cognition from the rail.

Bodacious Bay is the filly to beat. She won the Grade 1 Cotillion, and US Racing says she has the fastest proven form in the field. She also carries the most weight at 124 pounds. Saffie Joseph Jr. sends out three of the eleven runners (Bodacious Bay, Tahlequah, and Laken).

Intrepids Fantasy is the interesting one. She comes in on a three-race winning streak, and MyWinners lists her as unbeaten. Gary Capuano is a Maryland trainer, so she'll be a little under the radar in New York, but post 10 is a tough draw going 1 1/16 miles. Tap to Open (Brad Cox) is a bounce-back candidate after a disappointing last race.

Everybody's watching Ted Noffey. Last year's champion two-year-old makes his first start in about a year for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. He's the 8-5 favorite and has the most class in the field. But it's a long layoff, and favorites coming off a year away are easy to bet against at a short price.

Sea Strike is the logical alternative. He ran in the Travers and now cuts back to a one-turn mile with Chad Brown and Prat, the hottest trainer-jockey pair on this card. They also team up on Cognition in the Mother Goose and Senza Parole in the Pumpkin Pie.

DRF's Marcus Hersh likes Igniter. The colt has posted six works since the Pennsylvania Derby, where he was stuck wide. At 8-1, he's the best value in the race if Noffey needs a race back.

Only six fillies, and one of them is 3-5 on the morning line. Senza Parole is coming off a career-best 100 Beyer and should be a short price. It's hard to argue with her.

The fun bets are underneath. US Racing flags Icona Mama as a filly who keeps hitting the board. DRF's Hersh goes against the favorite with Amalfi Drive at about 10-1. He sees her as the lone speed in a small field, and on a wet track that could matter a lot.

This is the race where you can make some money. Last year, Wolfie's Dynaghost won it and paid $27.68 to win, and turf routes at Churchill tend to pay. MyWinners called it the top U.S. betting target of the weekend.

Lambeth is the 9-5 favorite. He's a Grade 2 Sycamore winner who is cutting back in distance. Class-wise, he deserves to be the favorite. Mike Maker's Ole Crazy Bone is the second choice, and Maker wins plenty of turf races at Churchill.

The two most interesting horses are the price horses. US Racing likes Kupuna at 9-2 as the value over the favorite. DRF's Hersh went bigger with Mercante, a six-year-old who figures to be the lone speed. He broke poorly in this race last year. If he breaks clean and gets an easy lead on the Churchill turf, he's dangerous at 8-1.

A 13-horse sprint for $300,000. The big name is Greenwich Village, a two-time stakes winner for Bob Baffert, ridden by Jose Ortiz. He returns from six months off. Baffert sprinters are usually fit off a layoff, but with 13 horses going six furlongs, almost anything can happen.

Last year, Roll On Big Joe won as the 5-2 favorite and drew away by four and a half lengths. We haven't seen a full morning line for this year's race, so check the program before you bet.

Del Mar's fall meet gives you one more stakes race on Saturday night. US Racing says Lovesick Blues is the class of the field, but he's coming off a layoff of more than seven months. Big City Lights is the 2-1 favorite for Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, who rarely runs a horse that isn't ready.